笑看风云

新华社北京8月22日电 题：三大台风将如何影响我国新华社记者刘诗平22日18时，位于太平洋上的今年第18号台风“沙德尔”正在向东海方向移动，第19号台风“紫檀”在距离广西东兴市东南方向约65公里的北部湾，第20号台风“简拉维”位于台湾台北市东偏北方向约295公里处。三大台风下一步将如何发展？会否登陆或明显影响我国？三大台风中，未来3天对我国影响最大者，是正在北部湾海面上回旋的“紫檀”。    Dozens of businesses, government offices, vehicles, and at least three police stations went up in flames in Freetown, Makeni, Kamakwie, and other cities across Sierra Leone from August 10 through 12, with over 113 people arrested and police introducing an emergency nationwide curfew and deploying tear gas and live ammunition to disperse crowds.,The curfew was lifted on August 13, with banks, businesses, government offices, and most stores reopened and communal services beginning to clear the damage. However, ramped-up security measures, including federal troop deployments to assist police, have been left in place.,What Happened?,Sierra Leone is one of the poorest nations in the world, ranking 186 out of 198 in a recent GDP purchasing power parity ranking. An estimated 80 percent of the population lives in poverty, many of them in the country’s rural areas. Like other nations in Africa, the country has faced special difficulties amid the global economic calamity brought on by COVID, and exacerbated by Western restrictions on Russian exports of agricultural goods and fertilizers amid the security crisis in Ukraine, which has caused a major jump in food prices.,AfricaAnti-Russia Sanctions Left Africa Without Access to Grain and Fertilisers, African Union Chief Says3 June, 11:13 GMT,As a net importer of both energy and food, Sierra Leone is especially vulnerable to global economic conditions, and along with food and fertilizers, fuel and electricity costs have also soared. Food prices alone have jumped by over 40 percent over the past few months, with a bag of rice once costing 350 leones now going for over 500. The country’s Central Bank recently removed three zeros from the national currency in a bid to restore confidence. The country has also been overcome by weeks of strikes by government workers, including doctors and teachers, and by small traders protesting poor conditions.,Coup Plot?,However, President Julius Maada Bio has also accused protesters of having ulterior motives beyond the cost of living crisis.,“This was not a protest against the high cost of living occasioned by the ongoing global economic crisis. The chant of the insurrectionists was for a violent overthrow of the democratically-elected government,” Bio said in an address on August 12 after returning to the country from a holiday in London.,Local media pointed to the chants of “Bio must go” among protesters as they gathered in the capital, and the president accused some of the demonstrators of consisting of “APC Warriors,” a reference to the opposition All People’s Congress party, which governed the country from 2007 until 2018, when Bio’s Sierra Leone People’s Party won national elections.,No doubt mindful of the violent civil war which shook the country between 1991 and 2002, claiming as many as 70,000 lives and displacing over 2.5 million people, Bio vowed that “in the coming weeks and months, [the] government will undertake necessary security actions meant to guarantee the peace and security of all citizens.”,“The security forces will, and must, act with great restraint and within their professional codes of service. But be assured that my government will crack down hard on violent insurrectionists, their collaborators, their sponsors and their supporters. My government will relentlessly fight those who would rather use terror and gruesome violence to achieve political goals,” the president said.,As a government, we will continue our engagement with Civil Society as we strive to promote sustainable peace, national cohesion and socio-economic development in Sierra Leone. #newdirectionagenda— President Julius Maada Bio (@PresidentBio) August 18, 2022,Bio did not elaborate on who these “sponsors” and “supporters” were, or whether they included any foreign actors.,Geopolitical Context,Like other African nations, Sierra Leone recently rejected calls by Washington and Brussels to show solidarity with the West and Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia. But even before the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, relations between Freetown and Washington were tense at times. Last year, US President Joe Biden snubbed Bio by refusing to invite the African leader to the US’ so-called “Democracy Summit.” No reasons were given. However, neighboring Liberia, which faced mass civil unrest of its own between 2019 and 2020, and whose officials have been sanctioned by the US over suspected corruption, did get an invite.,While Sierra Leone maintains economic and political ties with its former British colonial masters, and remains a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, Freetown has sought to expand its partnerships with other geopolitical power centers, including Russia and China. President Bio attended the Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi in 2019, where he discussed ways to strengthen economic cooperation between the distant nations. In February 2021, Freetown signed onto Moscow’s efforts to prevent the deployment of weapons in outer space. In May 2021, Bio spoke by phone to President Xi Jinping of China, where they discussed the friendly, “brotherly” relations between the two nations, as well Chinese assistance to Freetown in measures against COVID, and agricultural and economic development.,In this context, the reactions of major foreign powers to this month’s unrest have been telling. While the United States, Britain, and the European Union collectively expressed “grave concern” over the “disturbing reports of violence” and urged the parties to “stay calm, promote accountability and ensure respect for human rights,” China’s Embassy smoothed over the protests altogether, refraining from wagging its finger at Freetown and instead trumpeting the expanding cooperation between the two countries.,We are gravely concerned by reports of violence surrounding today’s demonstrations in Sierra Leone. We urge all parties to stay calm, promote accountability, and ensure respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.— Bureau of African Affairs (@AsstSecStateAF) August 10, 2022,Similarly, while UK High Commissioner to Sierra Leone Lisa Chesney lectured President Bio about how “violence has no place in a democracy and the necessary investigation into August 10 can sit alongside de-escalation,” the Russian Embassy in the Republic of Guinea, which concurrently serves as the Embassy in Sierra Leone, only presented a bare bones report on the situation in the country, Bio’s meetings with community and tribal leaders, and indicated that an internal “debriefing” was being created “regarding the causes, course and consequences of the riots on August 10.”。

B | 中央气象台预计，“紫檀”（热带风暴级）将从23日上午起，以每小时5至10公里的速度向东北转偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强，最强可达到强热带风暴级，并逐渐向广西沿海至广东雷州半岛西侧一带沿海靠近。中央气象台同时预计，“简拉维”（热带风暴级）将以每小时5至10公里的速度向偏西方向缓慢移动，强度先维持，后逐渐减弱，可能24日在福建近海减弱消散。中央气象台22日18时发布台风蓝色预警，预计22日20时至23日20时，东海南部海域和台湾以东洋面部分海域将有8级大风、阵风10级，“紫檀”中心经过的海面风力可达8至10级、阵风10至12级。同时，广西南部、海南岛西南部、广东东部、福建东部和南部、浙江东南部、台湾岛等地部分地区有大到暴雨，其中广西西南部、台湾岛南部等地有大暴雨、局地特大暴雨。

C | 中央气象台预计，22日20时至23日20时，广西南部的部分地区发生中小河流洪水的气象风险高，其中广西西南部局地发生中小河流洪水的气象风险很高；水利部和中国气象局预计，广西西南部部分地区发生山洪灾害可能性大，局地发生山洪灾害可能性很大；自然资源部和中国气象局预计，广西南部部分地区发生地质灾害的气象风险高。气象专家提醒，未来3天，海南、广西、广东、福建等地将有持续性强降雨天气，部分地区累计雨量有一定的极端性，需做好相关防御工作。“沙德尔”（强台风级）目前正以每小时25至30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。中央气象台首席预报员董林21日在分析“沙德尔”发展趋势时预测，“沙德尔”可能在未来3天达到超强台风级，26日前后将进入东海，此后可能继续向西北方向移动、28至29日前后登陆我国华东沿海，也可能在我国近海转向东北方向移动。

D | 目前，气象部门正密切跟踪监测“沙德尔”的发展，中央气象台将及时发布预报预警。

E |